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Search results: forecasting

Number of results: 6


Simulation of property management using the example of filling station chain
Annotation:

When managing a filling station chain, it is necessary to solve the following tasks in dynamics: determining the volume of purchases by types of oil products sold and redistributing the available volume of various types of oil products to filling station chain. The peculiarity of this control task is that the replenishment of the storage of oil products is carried out centrally, and the sale of each type of fuel is carried out at separate filling stations of the network, that is, in many points. At the same time, the volume of each type of fuel sold by each station of the network should be taken into account separately, taking into account the seasonal demand for a specific oil product. In addition to modeling demand, information is needed on the volume of petroleum products that can be purchased from suppliers with the possibility of increasing or decreasing the volume of purchases due to demand. To solve this problem, a list of suppliers of a specific type of oil product with a possible range of supply volumes must be determined. In the proposed model, an attempt is made to solve the above problems. To solve them, a management model was developed, which was implemented using the Visual Studio C # programming environment and MS SQLServer DBMS. When developing the structure of the database tables, the task of managing a network of filling stations based on the Petri net was taken into account: that is, the database tables provided for storing information on the volumes of supplies of petroleum products, the volume of sales of each type of petroleum product, as well as the time of deliveries and sales. To solve the problem of centralized procurement for all types of fuel, the database provided tables with information about suppliers and possible volumes of supplies by them of various types of petroleum products. To solve the problems of forecasting demand, the model includes algorithms for predicting the volume of sales of petroleum products based on the accumulated time series of data for each type of fuel separately. The forecasting was carried out in order to assess the required volumes of purchases of oil products for the coming period. The prediction algorithms are implemented using two methods: linear approximation and exponential smoothing. Both algorithms take into account the seasonality of demand.

Year of release: 2020
Number of the journal: 3(79)

Mathematical modeling of the results of experimental studies of the influence of the type and dose of cheese melting salt on the qualitative indicators of melted cheeses
Annotation:

The article is devoted to the mathematical modulation of a complex of experimental data obtained in the process of experimental studies of processed cheese products, processed by mathematical methods. The purpose of this study is to establish the type and amount of the melting salt that promotes the formation of the plastic structure of the processed cheese product. The analysis of scientific research in the field of food technologies showed that mathematical modeling is used in the following areas: clarification of the modes of technological processes, design of recipes and assessment of the quality of finished products, as well as forecasting the shelf life of new products when they are put into production. The most relevant in describing the processes of food production are models of multivariate variance-regression analysis using methods of mathematical planning of the experiment. The authors carried out mathematical modeling and established graphical dependencies characterizing the degree of influence of the regulated factors X1 and X2 on the controlled ones that determine the quality and safety of processed cheese products. It is important that the mathematical analysis of the graphical dependences of the rheological parameters on the adjustable factors indicates the reliability of the data obtained. It is concluded that an increase in the melting salt dose leads to an increase in the – limit shear stress, which reflects the nature and state of the consistency of the processed cheese product. The process of normalization of the controlled factors by the maximum value was carried out. Graphical dependencies were built and regression analysis was performed, the results of which allow an objective assessment of the degree of influence of the type and dose of the melting salt on the chemical and organoleptic characteristics of the test products. The authors have proven that the optimal efficiency of transforming the structure of the constituent components of the recipe into a plastic structure of a processed cheese product that is stable during storage is provided by a combination of adjustable factors X1 (Solva 85) and X2 (Solva 120) taken in a ratio of 1: 1, with a total amount of 1,2 mas.%. At the same time, the quality indicators of the experimental products are characterized by the following values of the controlled factors: У1 – 1280 Pa; У2 – 9 points, У3 – 9,301 (2,0-2,2109 colony forming units /g).

Year of release: 2020
Number of the journal: 3(79)

Application of intelligent transport systems on the roads of Кazakhstan
Annotation:

The progress of work on the creation of an "intelligent transport system" in Kazakhstan, the development and modernization of the road industry will be reported. The economic and social effectiveness of several transport corridors and new projects were analyzed. Transport corridors of foreign countries, methods of providing logistics services were presented. In his address, the head of state paid special attention to the issues of digitalization of all spheres of life of the population, including the transport sector of Kazakhstan. Currently, the Ministry of investment and development of the Republic of Kazakhstan is working on the creation of an "intelligent transport system" within the framework of the state program «Digital Kazakhstan» (ITS). ITS goal is to systematically integrate transport infrastructure, transport devices and users with modern information and communication technologies aimed at improving the safety and efficiency of the transport process. The concept will include 11 components in ITS. One of them is a special automated measuring instruments (UAVs), which are installed in the main automobile corridors. This device is designed to measure moving vehicles without contact and eliminate unjustified stops. This year, it is planned to put into operation 10 units of RSPP, and by 2020 it is planned to increase their number to 46 units. It is also planned to introduce a traffic management system that will inform drivers about the situation on the roads, a system for forecasting and analyzing climatic conditions, which is carried out through a network of weather stations along the roads, a network of video monitoring and special video cameras for detecting traffic violations, toll road systems that cover the cost of maintenance of the national road network, etc. They will be introduced in stages until 2021. The implementation of this project will reduce road deaths, increase the volume of transit traffic and the speed of logistics services, fully cover the main highways with measuring instruments and create favorable conditions for drivers on the roads. Such systems are already operating in South Korea, Japan, Australia, Europe and the United States.

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Ethnolinguistic significance of comparing human character with nature in Kazakh and English
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Main problem: It is well known that the development of language in society, the development of speech, the formation of personality largely depends on the interaction of people. Therefore, they develop depending on the specifics of each nation and are one of the values that people have accumulated over the centuries. Comparison of human behavior with nature in English and Kazakh languages describes the spiritual life of each nation. It defines the national feelings, national behavior, national customs and traditions. Purpose: Comparative analysis of the values of the Kazakh and English peoples occupies a special place in the culture and language, the essence and content of which are indelible. This is a fount of cultural and historical life of the people, the spiritual value of the nation, such qualities as prudence and kindness. Methods: This article describes the ethnolinguistic foundations for comparing human character and nature in English and Kazakh. In cultural linguistics and cognitive linguistics, the concept of behavior is studied as an image of the world formed in the consciousness of an ethnic group. Based on the definition of the concept of behavior, the authors describe the manifestations of behavior in the national consciousness, the system of national thinking, beliefs, attitudes. It is noted that the formation of the behavior of unrelated Kazakhs and Englishmen depends on their geographic environment, nomadic lifestyle and behavior. Results and their significance: The phraseological units of the two languages used in this study clearly to show the characteristics of each nation. It is shown that forecasting natural phenomena for both peoples is closely related to their life, economy, occupation and plays an important role in people's lives.

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Heading: Humanities

The ways of sustainable development of supporting rural areas
Annotation:

Main problem: achievement of socio-economic sustainability in each locality depends on coordinated actions of executive and representative authorities, which should be focused on creating appropriate conditions for ensuring social standards and improving quality of life of rural population, as well as the development of main economic basis – agricultural production. In this context, in today’s reality, the urgent problem of sustainable development of rural settlements is provision of appropriate industrial and social infrastructure, because systemic development of rural regions depends on this rural infrastructure, which acts as an element of territorial socio-economic subsystem. Purpose: identification and studying of key factors that determines and contributes to balanced development of industrial and social infrastructure of rural regions of country in context of sustainable development goals and objectives. According to the results of the study, the main distinctive features of sustainable development of rural areas are determined due to the provision of industrial and social infrastructure of rural regions, which has a correlation with the level and quality of life of the rural population, as well as the final results of agricultural production. Methods: general methodological principles, systematic approach and empirical methods of economic cognition act as methodological basis for implementation of this study: economic and statistical models, forecasting and modeling, methods of induction and deduction, synthesis, and also logical methods. Results and their significance: results of research can be used as a practical basis in activity of local executive bodies and local self-government bodies. Their use is possible for scientific substantiation of development and implementation of comprehensive plans for development of industrial and social infrastructure of rural areas of region within framework of Regional Development Plan, focused on qualitative improvement of economic basis of villages and the well-being of all segments of rural population.

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Creating an intelligent management environment for a powerful load node on the example of the Pavlodar region
Annotation:

The present stage of development of power systems is characterized by the need to increase their intelligence, that is, the formation of an environment capable of solving the problems of effective management of all components included in the power system. One of the features of modern energy systems is an active consumer, that is, a consumer who has the opportunity to optimize the schedule of loading their capacities, planning energy consumption, intellectualization of energy consumption. In addition to the fact that there are digital systems for collecting, processing and presenting information, as well as transmitting this information via the Internet, to solve the most difficult task of managing power systems, it is necessary to develop a large number of models adequate to real processes that can describe the processes taking place in the power system under consideration. The purpose is to develop models capable of adequately describing the interrelated processes occurring in the considered elements of the power system, as well as in the aggregate of related elements; development of methods that allow solving problems of effective control of elements of energy systems on the basis of the proposed intelligent models. To solve the problem of increasing the intelligence of the power system, nonlinear adaptive models of electrical complexes of an energy-intensive enterprise included in the power system were developed on the basis of balance equations and artificial intelligence methods. The production of alumina with the properties of inertia, nonlinearity and closure is chosen as the production under consideration. This type of production was chosen as the most difficult to predict due to the unpredictability of changes in energy consumption during the transition to other modes of its operation, associated, for example, with the receipt of raw materials with a different chemical composition for processing. Static and dynamic models of energy consumption of electrotechnical complexes with continuous inertial nonlinear closed production based on artificial intelligence methods have been developed, which makes it possible to eliminate the need to use long time series of retrospective data. For the considered type of continuous energy-intensive production, dynamic characteristics of energy consumption and technological processes are obtained from the main controlled parameters, which make it possible to predict emergency situations and partly man-made disasters. On the basis of a genetic algorithm, a multiparametric optimization problem of energy management of continuous production has been solved, taking into account technological parameters and cost factors.

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